Jakub Krzemiński
Antoni Starodomski
Warsaw / July 22, 2021
Today a huge mass of analytical materials is available on the topic of Russia's imminent defeat in possible cyber war which may be unleashed by it against the United States and the entire more or less civilized world. The main point in these materials is blurred by verbosity or lack of competence. That's why we decided to write this essay together with Antony Starodomsky - one of the world's leading specialists in information technologies and cybersecurity.
1. The first and most important point here is that the United States is able to deliver such a blow to the servers of Russia, as a result of which not ordinary citizens will suffer, but just the Putin regime. For example, it is possible to disable, or "burn down", the servers of public services, without affecting the general civil computer systems. As we all k now, all the basic components of the Internet are controlled from the USA. Accordingly, the entire structure of the domains of the Russian segment of the Internet is monitored by the specialists of the US special services. Therefore, there may be the following options for the actions of the US cyber forces in case of a conflict.
2. Disabling the possibility of encryption when accessing and transmitting data on the servers of Russian government agencies. In order to do this, the security certificates from these servers can be easily revoked.
3. Remote shutdown of network devices, routers, etc. In such case, the work of, for example, all telecommunications services can be completely disorganized.
4. Disconnecting basic elements of the gas and oil transportation infrastructure.
The US cyber forces have all the standards and capabilities of such actions, while the Russian Federation is able to counteract all the above in one way only: to switch to an isolated segment of the Internet inside Russia, cutting off all exits to the global network along the perimeter. In Russia, the "maneuvers" to practice this scenario were announced several times - and each time they were postponed for some reasons.
All computer systems, starting with banking systems, have been built in Russia using exclusively Western software and equipment. Thus, in case of a cyber conflict, Russian banks will be completely cut off from the global network. Under such conditions, there is no need to disconnect Russia from SWIFT from the outside - it will disconnect itself. Banks and telecommunication companies will be completely paralyzed as well. Not to mention that the entire system of Russian propaganda in the world will be cut off from the parent companies in Russia. Other vital sectors will also be destroyed. At the same time, a complete collapse of the economy is inevitable, as well as of all state structures of Russia, including but not limited to the Ministry of Defense, the FSB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, federal and local government structures...
That explains why the above mentioned "maneuvers" have not taken place so far. Even Russian experts clearly understand that this would be an act of suicide and so they postponed the "maneuvers" under plausible pretexts. But in the event of a large-scale US cyber intrusion, the Kremlin regime will demand this plan be put into action urgently. In parts, Russian structures cannot defend themselves, and, accordingly, they will have no other choice but to turn to complete and total self-isolation. That would mean total collapse of their economy.
Simply put, the above option would mean the suicide of the Russian regime and of Russian Federation as such. IT firms working for the Kremlin have long ago understood that there is complete incompetence and madness in the Kremlin. This has been understood, for example, by a career security officer and a spy Kaspersky. But they cannot "get out of the game" knowing that they are all hostages. In case of their "jumping off the train", they will inevitably be killed together with their families. Therefore, they are forced to take part in the preparation for the isolation. The same applies to the notorious Russian hackers. All of them have become hostages of the war that has already been lost before it even began.
In game theory, the situation into which the Kremlin adventurers and madmen have driven themselves together with the whole of Russia, is called a "trap". This is a classic example of a "trap" when the leadership of a country is trying to achieve two incompatible goals at the same time. A country as big as Russia can be either part of western civilization, or degenerate into a sort of North Korea. The second authoritarian option though is impossible for a large country, as it will inevitably lead to its disintegration.
An escalation mechanism of the future cyber war has been launched when the Russian leadership began to feverishly cut itself off from the outside world. But, as we mentioned above, this will lead to the collapse of Russia. The script was compiled by masters of game theory, the Chinese strategic game of Go, as well as by both logical and computer analysis. The Kremlin will kill itself and its zombie empire as well.
This is the trap that the Putin regime has driven itself into together with the whole of Russia. Today it is not even clear whether the current Russian regime can still be called Putin's. There is a lot of evidence that Putin himself has lost control of his administration. Hacker attacks on the United States, Russia's unleashing of a cyber war – all that speak in favor of the above assumption. Against the background of the beginning of the military phase of NATO's actions in Syria and the Black Sea realm, or of the assassination of the president of Haiti, after which his successor asked the United States to occupy his country, the scenario for the future is obvious.
In the ancient Chinese strategic game of Go, there is one technical element. That element is aimed at provoking the enemy to take a series of actions with which the enemy causes irreparable damage to himself. Someone also knows this as the "Aiki-do principle". And now the Kremlin's brainless punks hjave just been provoked to take a series of such actions by the masters of strategic games.
Recent negotiations of the Russian elite with the Taliban may serve as one of the last vivid examples of the above. The Americans left Afghanistan, leaving it at the mercy of Turkey. And the promises made to the "kafirs" (infidels), are not worth a penny according to the Sharia law. One can see that Russia has just suffered a crushing defeat in Central Asia, and the Caucasus, which never stopped smoldering, will soon catch fire as well.
This is the chronicle of today’s artfully staged suicide.
PS. On July 13, information was received that the servers of the Russian hacker organization REvil, which attacked the United States, ceased to operate. This organization is now absent from the network, as well as everything that it has done until recently.