By Rafal Barnaś and Dr. Jakub Krzemiński
Warsaw, August 23, 2020
Today, at the height of the popular uprising in Belarus, voices of pessimism are heard regarding the prospects and consequences of this uprising. We consider such pessimism to be inappropriate, therefore, point by point, we will show it is unjustified.
1. Lack of a Leader
Today we saw the highest level of self-organization of Belarusians. They do not wait for commands, instructions, recommendations. They self-organize to huge masses of people even with a blocked Internet. It is not just a matter of the general anger caused by the fascist terror of Lukashenka and his regime. In our opinion, today in Belarus a network management is being born, in which not only “leaders” are needed, but also politics itself. Society itself formulates and solves tasks in a collective way, it itself seeks ways to accomplish them. So, during the Belarusian August Uprising, such goals are the overthrow of Lukashenka and his regime, punishment of those responsible for the genocide of Belarusians, fair elections and a democratic, European way of the country's development.
2. During the Most Massive Rallies, Belarusians Had a Chance to Take Power, but Missed It, as the Lukashenka Regime Seized the Initiative
The current uprising does not fit into the old "seizure of power" scheme. It provided for the storming of government buildings and prisons, as it was during the Ukrainian Maidan. Firstly, the initiative to toughen the repression is ephemeral, since the majority of Belarusians have lost their fear of reprisals. Secondly, Lukashenka’s panic actions reveal precisely the loss of control over the situation, which will entail another repression, and from the side of the insurgents there is resistance adequate to the threats. The peaceful intentions of the Belarusians are a guarantee of preventing the transformation of the consequences of the uprising into the transfer of power from one oligarchic group to another, which is also erroneously argued by some political scientists. Moreover, peaceful intentions do not exclude forceful opposition in the event of an escalation of repression by the regime.
3. Hybrid Anschluss of Belarus by the Kremlin.
In fact, there are Russian police forces on the territory of Belarus. Television is occupied by strikebreakers from the Russian propaganda company Russia Today. Belarus is full of saboteurs of the FSB and the Russian GRU. Even in the so-called Coordination Council there will be Russian agents. However, all this does not work for the Kremlin, but against it. Belarus was virtually the only country where there was no hatred of Russia. Until now, there have been no anti-Russian slogans among the slogans of the uprising. However, the appearance of Russian flags and symbols of the fascist Russian organization NOD at the forced rallies "for Lukashenka" provoked indignation of Belarusians, as did the lies of television occupied by the Russians. All this is capable of not only completely isolating Russia, but also the emergence of its new dangerous enemy in the person of the Belarusian people. If Lukashenko signed the documents on the inclusion of Belarus in Russia, they have no legal force, since he, Lukashenko, is not recognized by the world community as the President of Belarus. The fact that he is formally such before November 9 does not matter, since Lukashenko has committed crimes against humanity since August 9, which do not have a statute of limitations, which are not an internal matter of Belarus, and fall under international jurisdiction.
The above is not a statement about the immediate transfer of power from the fascist occupation regime of Lukashenka to the Belarusian people. This transition will take place inevitably and in a relatively short time. The key to this is the high self-organization of Belarusians. Also the fact that, unlike, for example, the Maduro regime in Venezuela, Lukashenka has no raw material assets, and the assistance of the Putin regime is insufficient to stay in power. Most likely, Lukashenka will be eliminated physically by his own or Putin's accomplices. Then a real struggle for the independence of Belarus will unfold.
4. The Future of Belarus
There are several possible scenarios for the development of the situation in Belarus. We can expect increasingly coordinated desinformation activities supported by the Russians. The regime will try to intimidate the inhabitants of the provinces with the vision of losing their jobs and the feeling of being threatened by neighbors such as Poland and Lithuania.
The armed forces of Belarus moved along the western borders can in fact be used to pacify their own citizens in Brest or Grodno.
A Russian military intervention in Belarus seems unlikely. This would violate the territorial independence of Belarus.
A military intervention would lead to the imposition of sanctions by the European Union and the United States on the Russian economy. It would mean an economic collapse in Russia. The election of Lukashenko as president has not been recognised by any major country in the world.
The fall of the regime in Belarus is only a matter of time. The most important thing is that the uprising of Belarusian people against the tyranny should take place without bloodshed.