THE COVER OPERATION
Updated: Dec 11, 2020
Rafał Barnaś, Dr. Jakub Krzemiński
Warsaw / September 12, 2020
In previous articles, we talked about the terrorist and military threats posed by the regimes of Lukashenka and Putin. These threats are very real.
However, the following fact should not be overlooked as well. Today Belarusian dictator Lukashenka turned into a political corpse, and in the near future he might also turn into a physical one. Lukashenka desperately clings not only to power, but to his life as well. Clearly realizing that he is not only totally hated by the whole country of his, where he can rely only on the lured gangs of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB, he is also gradually losing interest from the Kremlin.
Putin's regime now needs the whole fuss around Lukashenka only as a possible precedent for war. Of course, the hope is that the Putin’s regime realizes the futility of possible confrontation with the economic, political and military might of the West and NATO in complete loneliness, with an illusory hope for loose and impotent «Collective Security Treaty Organization». Self, explanatory, Lukashenka's own words that “60,000 Belarusian army bayonets are ready to defend Russia” can be best commented on by psychiatrists, taking into account his pathological inclination to the most incredible lies, betrayal and treachery, which the dictator Putin has repeatedly stumbled over. Тherefore, still not discarded plan for the annexation of Belarus may undergo fundamental changes.
One of the new variants of that old plan may consist in physical elimination of Lukashenka and his replacement with another pro-Moscow figure, that could be accepted and supported by the Belarusian society. The first candidate for such a role is, undoubtedly, Viktar Babaryka.
This assumption is supported by the following factors.
1. Before the presidential elections, Lukashenka, wishing to create an image of the guarantor of the independence of Belarus, ordered his subordinates to conduct investigation of Belgazprombank, which is a joint property of Gazprom and Gazprombank. Until recently, Viktar Babaryka was the head of Belgazprombank. In view of the above, Babaryka's statements about "the expediency of a single currency of the union state of Russia and Belarus" do not seem strange, despite the fact that later he refuted that statement himself in order to meet the political conjuncture.
2. As a result of the above investigation, some 15 employees of Belgazprombank were arrested. Today, their boss Babaryka himself is considered a political prisoner. His nomination as a presidential candidate is seen by many as Putin's personal revenge for Lukashenka's intractability regarding possible incorporation of Belarus into Russia. Of course, Lukashenka does not care about the independence of Belarus, as he needs, first and foremost, an unlimited dictatorial power. This is precisely the reason behind the persecution of Babaryka.
3. The head of campaign headquarters of Viktor Babaryka, Maria Kolesnikova, was kidnapped in the middle of the day in the center of Minsk by Lukashenka's terrorists. While resisting her deportation her to Poland, Kolesnikova destroyed her passport. Now she is in prison, facing the charges for "calling for the overthrow of the constitutional order of the Republic of Belarus” that can result in 2 to 5 years in prison. In recent days, Kolesnkova has become an “icon” of the protest movement: she is admired by many, and thousands of women are coming out in her defense, being subjected to terrorist attacks by Lukashenka's mercenaries, including some Russian ones.
4. When Lukashenka is inevitably overthrown, Babaryka and Kolesnikova will most lilkely be triumphantly released with significant political capital - in Babaryka's case, combined with colossal financial capital provided by Gazprom. Accordingly, it is he who now can probably boast the best chances for winning the new presidential election.
Thus, Belarusians can receive a head of state who has suffered from political repression, who enjoys public support and respect and who managed to replace mentally challenged fascist dictator. If that happens, Putin will enjoy having an absolutely dependent head of Belarussian state and, in fact, owning Belarus itself without having fired a single shot. In some sense, this situation could be quite similar to the annexation of Crimea.
Basing on the above factors, a number of well-informed and competent analysts tend to view the possible rise to power of Viktar Babaryka as a "cover operation" by the Russian special services. Today, when state terrorism is rampant in Belarus, this issue is not relevant. However, one cannot say the same about tomorrow.