- Rafał Barnaś, Jakub Krzemiński
BELARUSIAN UPRISING, RUSSIAN PROTESTS: HIDDEN CAUSES AND POSSIBLE EVOLUTION
Updated: Dec 11, 2020
By Rafal Barnaś and Dr. Jakub Krzemiński
Warsaw, August 25, 2020
Today we are witnessing an increase in peaceful protests in Russia (Khabarovsk), a genuine popular uprising in Belarus, which, however, is currently of a peaceful nature, despite the repression on behalf of Lukashenka's occupation regime. There is no doubt that these protests have a geopolitical implication as well as a military aspect. There is no doubt also a direct impact on their consequences of the world economic and financial system, namely, its oligarchic nature, which in developed countries is mitigated by the long traditions of democracy in their political system.
The political system of the post-Soviet countries (to a lesser extent in the Baltic countries) is openly criminal, built on the patterns of the KGB-FSB. At one time, the writer and historian Viktor Suvorov (Vladimir Rezun), a former GRU officer, warned the free world in the face of the current situation of the transfer of power, primarily in Russia, to organized criminal groups, such as merging with the special services, which in fact became legalized criminal organizations with a state sign.
The centralized system of governance worked well in times when access to information for ordinary citizens was limited. Nowadays, the development of technology has made it easier for ordinary citizens to communicate and access to information. In a country as vast as Russia the model of centralized country where decisions are sometimes made in a group of several people is no longer effective. Individual regions are in danger of splitting.
In this real situation, peaceful protesters both in Belarus and in Russia are dealing with criminal organizations represented by the special services and the police, and thus with the criminal regimes of Lukashenka and Putin, who have carried out military coups in their countries. In this regard, there is a certain evolution of peaceful protests in these countries. This is manifested in the following.
1. Massive daily demonstrations in the Russian Khabarovsk are connected very indirectly with the arrest by the Putin regime of the governor Furgal. The direct reasons are quite different.
a) The Kremlin group, headed by the director of the FSB Patrushev, is preparing to remove Putin from power, who has bothered the population and officials no less than Lukashenko in Belarus. Peaceful demonstrations in Khabarovsk are held under the shadow patronage of Patrushev and his group.
b) An oligarchic element linked to Chinese and Japanese business and political circles in these countries is also behind the protests in Khabarovsk.
c) To maintain the degree of protest, a governor has been sent to the region, famous for his clinical stupidity.
2. Protests in Belarus are a popular uprising against the fascist dictatorship of Lukashenka and the dictator himself. The military coup carried out by Lukashenka and his henchmen by falsifying the results of the presidential elections, without a doubt, was the root cause of the uprising - even if it was, at least for now, a peaceful character. We wrote about a new type of uprising in one of our previous articles. However, the Russian writer Mikhail Weller is right when he says that behind the backs of the revolutionaries there are cold and calculating people who will take the stage at the right time.
a) Belarusian businessmen associated with Chinese and Russian capital. The latter want more wealth and influence than they have under the dictator Lukashenka.
b) Big business and political circles in China, as well as in Russia, belonging to the groups of both Putin and Patrushev.
All of the above indicates a low degree of predictability and forecasting of protests in Russia and the uprising in Belarus. At the same time, both are evidence not only of the exhausted patience of people, but also a potential means of additional enrichment and power for those mentioned above. In addition, this may be the reason for the transition of peaceful protests into civil war. In the case of both dictators, Putin and Lukashenko, we are talking about an absolute readiness to shed blood inside and outside the country, up to the unleashing of large-scale armed conflicts. The example of Ukraine can be seen in this, as well as in the anti-popular outcome of the uprisings.
We will talk about possible ways to avoid this in subsequent materials.