Warsaw / March 8, 2021
Before we talk about effective measures to deal with the totalitarian regimes of China and Russia, let us turn to an example from the end of the last century. I assume, everyone knows the name of Pablo Escobar, a Colombian drug lord and one of the greatest criminals in world history. However, not too many people are aware of the fact that Escobar was not only supported but simply adored by the slum population of Columbia. When Escobar declared war on his own state after having flooded the USA with illegal drugs, he ordered the distribution of weapons to slum dwellers, assigning rewards for killing police officers in sizes depending on their rank. As a result, police officers were hunted and killed en masse and awards for those killings were distributed. The same love on behalf of the lumpen was enjoyed by the leader of the Cosa Nostra in New York, John Gotti.
Getting back China and Russia, it would hardly be an exaggeration to say that both countries are, in fact, two giant slums populated predominantly by lumpen masses. Just like the Colombian or New York lumpen of both "colored" and "white" origins, they share the totalitarian mentality of slaves who adore their slave owners. Dissatisfaction with a slave owner may arise only if there are signs of his weakness. That is why the idea of Victoria Nuland (considered quite an influential person in the Joe Biden administration) about the "direct appeal to the Russians" can hardly cause anything but a characteristic finger gesture at the temple, as the totalitarian lumpen does not need freedom or democracy. They are not capable of a rebellion, but of riots, pogroms and looting only.
The above examples prove the following:
1. The totalitarian regimes of China and Russia are not threatened within their own countries.
2. Those regimes can only be overthrown by an external impulse.
3. The effects of such an impulse should be both economic and military, whereas the role of diplomacy under such circumstances is secondary, and the diplomats can be used exclusively for the delivery of conditions and ultimatums.
4. When it comes to terrorist regimes that keep murdering their own citizens and pose a terrorist and military threat to their neighbors and the entire world, any demagoguery about "internal affairs" is suppressed from above. At the same time, the suppression of such regimes is supported by international law, while their crimes against humanity fall under international jurisdiction.
1. Although the Beijing leadership is totalitarian, it is still not completely devoid of both the common sense and the ability to make a real assessment of the situation. Therefore, in relation to Mainland China, the diplomacy is appropriate, but only from a position of strength.
2. China should be cut off from Western technologies. That goal can be achieved only if it is stripped of its role as the "main assembly shop", while its industrial espionage is suppressed in the strongest possible way. Today, the role of such a workshop is claimed by India, where labor is even cheaper than in China, and such Indian claims should be satisfied.
3. The creation of something like a "second NATO" from the countries of the Pacific rim and Southeast Asia could also contribute to the isolation of China and the suppression of its military might.
1. The Kremlin leadership demonstrates complete inadequacy and mental inferiority. There is information available not only regarding their participation in transnational drug business, but also about their personal use of heavy drugs. That has been all amply demonstrated during the recent visit to Moscow by the head of EU diplomacy, Joseph Borrel. Therefore, one can apply diplomacy against the Putin junta iexclusively for delivering ultimatums.
2. The first actions of the US administration and NATO after the US elections allow to assume that the forces that determine the geopolitical situation have an unequivocal intention to put an end not only to the Putin regime, but also to the Russian Federation in its current format. It is not a big secret that the most modern American weapons are nowadays being constantly transferred to Europe thus making it possible to inflict a military defeat on the Kremlin without invading Russia or breaching its airspace. The heavy defeats suffered recently by the Kremlin's allies in Syria, Libya and Karabakh, aas well as in the Central African Republic, clearly demonstrate Russia's technological, logistical, and combat backwardness.
3. At the same time, the sanctions against the Kremlin are quite consistent with the mantra of the Lavrov's Foreign Ministry: "The sanctions button is not working". Indeed, only the following sanctions against the Kremlin can be really effective:
A) Total blockade of Putin's inner circle.
B) Sectoral sanctions against all sectors of the economy.
C) Disabling SWIFT.
The current sanctions can be of interest exclusively as a preliminary signal that the main actions in suppressing the Kremlin are still to come. Also, the inclusion of the international terrorist Yevgeny Prigozhin into the FBI wanted list serves as a signal to Putin and his entourage that they may be next. It should be recognized that nothing like this has ever been carried out by the Obama and Trump administrations, especially during the first months of their stay in power. The same can be said in regards with the charges against the King of Saudi Arabia for the murder of a human rights activist. This may get its logical continuation if Vladimir Putin is accused Putin of murdering Boris Nemtsov and attempting to poison Alexey Navalny with a chemical warfare agent.
In fact, the differences between the totalitarian regimes of China and Russia only emphasize the need to suppress them. They grew up due to the irresponsibility or outright venality of Western politicians. But we should not forget about the forces that stand above these politicians, the forces that possess fantastic financial resources and boast almost unlimited power. E.g., the turnover of BNP Paribas alone (the company owned by the Pallavicini family) is two trillion euros. Today, these forces are hindered by both Mainland China and Russia. One should also expect other global shifts and shocks in the near future.